Guide to Establishing Baselines for the STEP UP Project

A baseline provides a clear, evidence-based snapshot of the situation before any project activities begin. For STEP UP, robust baselines are essential to:

• Measure progress and impact: Baselines are the starting point for tracking achievements against DMF and GAP indicators. Without them, it is impossible to demonstrate quantitative or qualitative impact on STEM education, teacher capacity, or student performance.
• Enable evidence-based planning: Initial data verifies project assumptions and informs detailed planning and targeting (e.g., STEM equipment inventories in GTHSs to guide procurement).
• Ensure accountability: Well-documented baselines support transparent reporting to MoEYS, ADB, and other stakeholders, feeding into quarterly/annual reports and the Project Completion Report.
• Understand the context: Baselines reveal existing capacities, needs, and challenges in target schools and agencies, including M&E capabilities and current STEM frameworks.
• Guarantee inclusivity: Disaggregated baseline data (by gender, beneficiary groups, and region/province) ensures equity and alignment with GAP requirements.

The International Team Leader and National Deputy Team Leader oversee baseline studies, supported by M&E specialists. The process can be structured into six steps:

Step 1: Review foundational project documents

• Analyze the DMF and GAP to identify all outcome and output indicators requiring baseline values.
• Consult the PAM for monitoring requirements and project targets.

Step 2: Develop the baseline study and M&E framework

• Develop a comprehensive Project M&E Framework (PMEF) led by International and National M&E Specialists.
• Define key questions, data needs, and methodologies for each indicator.
• Design data collection tools (surveys, interview guides, observation checklists, inventories) that capture disaggregated data (sex, age, disability, ethnicity, location).

Step 3: Collect and consolidate secondary data

• Review previous project reports (e.g., USESDP, USESDP-2).
• Access existing MoEYS EMIS data and school-level assessment records.

Step 4: Conduct primary data collection

• Deploy tools in target USSs, GTHSs, and with stakeholders at national, provincial, and district levels.
• Conduct school visits, facility assessments, interviews, and focus group discussions.
• Apply rigorous quality control to ensure accuracy and consistency.

Step 5: Analyze data and establish baseline values

• Clean, process, and analyze quantitative and qualitative data.
• Calculate starting values for each indicator (e.g., “X% female students in STEM”, “Y GTHSs with functioning lab safety equipment”).
• Examine disaggregated data to identify disparities between groups.

Step 6: Prepare and disseminate the baseline report

• Compile findings into a comprehensive Baseline Study Report.
• Clearly state baseline values for all relevant DMF and GAP indicators, describe methods, and summarize key contextual findings.
• Use the report as the foundational reference for all future monitoring, evaluation, and reporting.

The baseline strategy should combine quantitative and qualitative methods, drawing on primary and secondary sources specified or implied in the ToR.

Data sources

Primary sources:

• Target schools: USSs, SRS, SRS Network Schools, NGS, and the 4 target GTHSs.
• Key stakeholders: MoEYS staff, PMU/PIU staff, IA personnel (ITC, NIE, DGE), POE/DOE staff, school principals, STEM teachers, and students.

Secondary sources:

• MoEYS data (school census, performance records, teacher qualifications, EMIS).
• Project documents (DMF, GAP, PAM).
• Previous project reports (USESDP, USESDP-2, especially lab designs and safety guidelines).

Data collection methods

Quantitative methods:

• Surveys on STEM knowledge, skills, attitudes, and school management capacity.
• System data analysis from existing EMIS (baseline for future OpenEMIS rollout in 554 USSs).
• Inventories of STEM equipment, especially in the 4 target GTHSs.
• Student performance analysis using school-based assessment data, disaggregated by sex.

Qualitative methods:

• Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with MoEYS officials, school directors, and IA staff.
• Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with STEM teachers and students (disaggregated by gender) on practices, needs, and experiences.
• Direct observation of classrooms/labs, safety equipment, and pedagogical practices.
• Document review of STEM curricula, training materials, and school improvement plans.

Mixed-methods:

• Needs assessments combining surveys, interviews, and observation to define CPD, EdTech, and lab upgrade requirements.
• Capacity assessments of M&E systems within PMU, PIUs, and MoEYS departments to identify gaps and capacity-building needs.